According to the Polish Renewable Energy Organization, by the end of 2022, solar power generation in this Eastern European country is expected to reach 10 GW. Despite the strong contraction in the field of distributed power generation, the expected growth can still be achieved.
According to data from the Polish Renewable Energy Organization (IEO), the Polish photovoltaic market is expected to grow strongly in the past ten years and reach 30 GW of installed capacity by the end of 2030.
Experts also predict that despite the upcoming contraction of the distributed power generation market, the country’s cumulative power generation capacity will increase from the current level of approximately 6.3 GW to 10 GW by the end of next year.
In 2021, small residential photovoltaic systems will account for about 2 GW of newly deployed capacity. However, IEO analysts explained that this year’s growth is mainly due to the approach of the end of the year, because the current net metering tariff rules and incentives will expire at the end of December. They said: “Starting from 2022, the consumer market may begin to be saturated, and thereafter it will develop steadily every year, with an average annual growth rate of not more than one gigawatt.”
The utility-scale solar energy segment will maintain the upward trend of the Polish solar energy industry. It is predicted that the power generation in this segment is equivalent to the installed capacity of distributed power generation from 2023 to the turn of 2024. In addition, large consumers in the Polish energy sector are increasingly interested in industrial and commercial self-use projects, and the proportion of such projects will reach 10% by the end of 2023.
The IEO report concludes: “The challenge facing the photovoltaic market is the need to expand the scale of the grid and increase its flexibility at all voltage levels.”
In the last report released in March, the organization stated that by 2025, Poland’s photovoltaic power generation capacity is expected to reach 14.93 GW.
Currently, the country is committed to supporting solar development through auction plans and rooftop photovoltaic incentives.