A new report from the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) shows that photovoltaics have strong potential in all scenarios for the country’s future energy mix. According to Dutch experts, solar power could reach 55 GW to 132 GW by 2050.
The Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) has released a new report outlining two possible scenarios for the country’s energy system to develop towards a fully decarbonised economy by 2050.
These two scenarios are called “adaptation” and “transition”, and both involve the strong development of renewable energy and hydrogen energy. The authors of the report say the major shift to clean energy will not lead to higher costs. The country’s energy demand is expected to increase from the current 110 TWh to 500 TWh.
The “adaptation” scenario is less radical and contributes less to meeting Paris climate goals, fossil fuels are still partly used as raw materials, and emissions from international aviation and shipping are only halved.
The bar for a “transition” scenario is much higher, requiring not only a radical change in behaviour but also extensive energy savings to reduce energy demand. In this scenario, renewable energy would cover almost all of the country’s electricity needs by 2050, but electricity would still need to be imported to meet all consumption needs.
Under the “adaptation” scenario, the Netherlands could have 98.5 GW of installed wind and solar capacity by 2050, including 36 GW of offshore wind, 7.5 GW of onshore wind and 55 GW of photovoltaics, with no nuclear power expected to run. In contrast, under the “transformation” scenario, nuclear power capacity will reach 5 GW, with a share of about 7%, solar power capacity will reach 132 GW, offshore wind power will be 70 GW, and onshore wind power will be 12 GW. The total capacity will reach 214 GW.
In both scenarios, the share of solar and wind in the country’s electricity mix will exceed 80% in 2030 and 90% in 2050.
“We will strive to maximize the use of solar and wind energy in our energy supply and to make heavy industry more sustainable,” the TNO experts said. Wind energy is in the limelight.” The Netherlands will have a cumulative installed PV capacity of 14.3 GW by the end of 2021, according to the Netherlands Central Statistics Office. Last year, the Dutch solar market added 3.3 GW of new capacity. By comparison, in 2017
The total capacity of newly installed PV systems was 853 MW, compared with 1.69 GW in 2018, 2.57 GW in 2019 and 2.93 GW in 2020.